Our latest YouGov poll has been published today. Details here and you my Wales Tonight report here . My interview with the US Ambassador is here if you don’t want to wait for tonight’s Sharp End.
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As far as I can see a Labour majority of 32 would require Labour not only to win all of the 30 seats they won in 2003 (which would lose them any regional list seats), but also the Plaid Cymru seats of Carmarthenshire & Dinefwr and Ynys Môn.
They would have no chance whatsoever of winning the remaining 8 constituency seats and could only at the most cause the Lib Dem seats of Montgomeryshire and Brecon as well as the Plaid seat of Aberconwy to go to the Conservatives.
In other words, if the poll turns out to be correct on the night, Labour would be hard pressed to gain more than 30 seats, despite having a much greater lead than they did in 2003. The 32 seats your number-cruncher suggests is the maximum number of seats they could hope to win. Anything above that (such as the 33 seats Gareth Hughes suggests on his blog) is in my view unrealistic.
You have a fair point and what’s becoming very clear already is that a number of key constituencies are being fought like by-elections which could buck any national swing. It also makes the question of coalition or not still a very real and very difficult one for Labour.