Our latest YouGov poll has been published today. Details here and you my Wales Tonight report here . My interview with the US Ambassador is here if you don’t want to wait for tonight’s Sharp End.
Previous Posts
- Andrew RT Davies AM Barnett formula Bethan Jenkins AM Blogs Boundary Commission for Wales budget Calman Commission Carwyn Jones AM Cheryl Gillan Cheryl Gillan MP Chris Bryant MP Conservatives Dai LLoyd AM Danny Alexander David Cameron David Jones MP Deputy First Minister Ed Miliband MP Electoral Commission Elin Jones AM Government of Wales Act 2006 Holtham Commission House of Lords HS2 Ieuan Wyn Jones AM ITV Wales James Forsyth John Dixon Jonathan Edwards MP Kirsty Williams AM Labour Leighton Andrews AM Liberal Democrats Llandudno Ministry of Defence Nick Bourne AM No campaign Northern Ireland Assembly organ donation Parliament Peter Black AM Peter Hain Peter Hain MP Philip Hammond MP Plaid Cymru politics Privy Council rail rail electrification referendum Rhodri Morgan AM Scottish Parliament Sharp End St David's Day Stormont the Spectator True Wales Vale of Glamorgan Wales Wales Decides Wales Office Welsh Affairs Select Committee Welsh Assembly Welsh Assembly election 2011 welsh assembly government Welsh Assembly Government budget Welsh Conservatives Welsh General Election Welsh Labour Welsh Liberal Democrats Welsh politics Welsh referendum Welsh Secretary Yes for Wales YouGov
Follow me on Twitter
- RT @deepsouthmag: Tennessee Williams’ “Night of the Iguana” opens in #NewOrleans ahead of @TWFestNOLA this week. Find out why this high-sta… 17 hours ago
- RT @SharpEndITV: What does the budget mean for Wales? @adrianmasters84 explains ✍️ itv.com/news/wales/202… 5 days ago
- Welsh Secretary David TC Davies says a free port announcement for Wales is “very imminent” 6 days ago
- Budget: Chief Secretary to the Treasury John Glen has been briefing Welsh reporters. He couldn’t say how much of th… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 6 days ago
- Budget: Free childcare extended to children over 9 months. In Wales, this is entirely devolved to the Welsh Governm… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 6 days ago
- Budget: Chancellor says categorising nuclear power as “environmentally sustainable” will open up similar incentives… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 6 days ago
- Budget: Chancellor says his decisions announced today will trigger £180m in funding for the Welsh Government. Welsh… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 6 days ago
- Budget: 12 investment zones planned. 8 in England. Chancellor promises "at least one" in Wales 6 days ago
-
ITVAdrian 
As far as I can see a Labour majority of 32 would require Labour not only to win all of the 30 seats they won in 2003 (which would lose them any regional list seats), but also the Plaid Cymru seats of Carmarthenshire & Dinefwr and Ynys Môn.
They would have no chance whatsoever of winning the remaining 8 constituency seats and could only at the most cause the Lib Dem seats of Montgomeryshire and Brecon as well as the Plaid seat of Aberconwy to go to the Conservatives.
In other words, if the poll turns out to be correct on the night, Labour would be hard pressed to gain more than 30 seats, despite having a much greater lead than they did in 2003. The 32 seats your number-cruncher suggests is the maximum number of seats they could hope to win. Anything above that (such as the 33 seats Gareth Hughes suggests on his blog) is in my view unrealistic.
You have a fair point and what’s becoming very clear already is that a number of key constituencies are being fought like by-elections which could buck any national swing. It also makes the question of coalition or not still a very real and very difficult one for Labour.