Over at Wales Home, Daran Hill has a typically thoughtful look at the Welsh election and in particular the prospects of Labour winning a majority. Well worth a read in its entirety of course, but one thing that stands out is what Daran calls ‘the cheeky win’ – the surprise victories/defeats/holds (delete as applicable) which change the whole election game.
What could be the big surprises this time around? A Green or UKIP win? The Liberal Democrats defying the polls and not just holding onto what they have now but winning Ceredigion and Newport East? A Labour landslide? The Conservatives winning Ynys Môn thanks to Peter Rogers’ endorsement? Plaid Cymru coming from third place to take Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire?
Of course one party’s improbable fantasy is another’s racing certainty, but the unpredictable element is what makes elections so enjoyable to report on and so fraught for the parties involved.
So what are your predictions for the big surprise or surprises in 2011? Leave them in the comments and I’ll round up the best of them.
ITVAdrian 
Lab gains:
Blaenau Gwent
Cardiff North
Cardiff Central
Carms West
Llanelli
Aberconwy
outside chances:
Arfon
Preseli Pembs
Monmouth
Clwyd West
Carms East
N Wales list seat
Cons:
gain Brecon & Rad
& Montgomeryshire
Lose list seat in MWW
Libs:
Lose the above + SWE list, maybe also lose SWW seat
Keep NW list & gain MWW list seat. 2 AMs left
Plaid:
In a scrap to keep Llanelli, Carms East, Aberconwy & Arfon. Will hold Ynys Mon comfortably
I can see Plaid losing Ynys Môn unless IWJ does some campaigning, I would put money on it- had the Tories not won in London- now it depends on dissatisfaction.
Arfon- easy win for Plaid.
Libs- can see them lose N.Wales regional seat, with Plaid gaining if they lose Abetconwy/Môn.
On the whole will be a Labour night throughout Wales. If tories come above Plaid good on them, but Plaid will have to look at their strategy whether their in Gov or not. They should’ve been by now as popular as the SNP (1999 elections are indicitive of this) but theyre not and they must ask why.
Agree with Owain: not quite a Labour landslide, perhaps, but the momentum’s all Labour’s way. FibDems will have a very bad time. Thoroughly deserved, too.