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Posts Tagged ‘YouGov’

Uncertainty is the only certainty on this last day of election campaigning before voting gets under way tomorrow morning.

That uncertainty may be interesting for people like me and nerve-wracking for politicians, but it’s the civil service for whom it causes a real challenge.

They have to be ready to swing into action to deliver a government programme from Friday onwards. Trouble is they don’t know who’ll form that government.

So how have they been preparing themselves?

I’m told there’s been a ‘rigorous process’ by which every party’s manifesto has been combed through to see what each of them is promising.

Department-by-department, civil servants have examined and discussed in detail the implications of all the proposals, the likely costs, the legality or otherwise and other strictly practical questions.

The aim is to be armed with all the facts and figures so that the relevant officials are fully prepared for whichever party or parties the next set of Welsh ministers come from.

What the civil service here won’t do, I’m told, is to play the kind of  role played by the head of the UK civil service, Sir Gus O’Donnell after last year’s inconclusive Westminster election.

In the build-up to last May, Sir Gus had led civil servants in wargaming exercises, working out the implications of different scenarios and then played an active role in bringing the eventual coalition partners together in as binding a partnership as possible.

Officials here have taken the position that they won’t make any assumptions about  possible permutations – so no ‘wargaming’ of different coalition arrangements.

While they expect to play a pivotal role, they won’t play a political role and that distinction is crucial.

There’ll be no ‘second-guessing’, I’m told.  Rather, civil servants in Cathays Park see their role as ‘being in a position to enable the democratic process to be run through.’

We’ll get our final clue as to what possible scenarios they might be confronted with on May the 6th in our eve-of-poll poll which will be published later.

I should be able to bring you the headlines of it in our lunchtime bulletin at 1.55pm ITV1 Wales and I’ll update with a link to the details  when we have them.

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I’m going to disappoint you by not declaring a winner in last night’s Wales Decides Leaders’ Debate on ITV1 Wales.

I think each of the four leaders gave a good account of him or herself at the Coal Exchange.

Perhaps more importantly I don’t think there were any losers. I say importantly because I reckon that, as our YouGov poll has been showing, most voters’ minds have been made up for a while now.

So last night, apart from a few uncomfortable moments, nobody lost their temper or struggled for too long on areas they’re weak on and so while they might not have changed many voters’ minds, they won’t have lost any supporters.

Don’t take my word for it though. Esyllt Carr was speaking to members of the audience last night. You can see what they told her in Wales Tonight at 6pm.

And there are two more YouGov polls to go. The first, for S4C’s Y Byd Ar Bedwar programme will be published on Monday.

The second ITV Wales 1000 survey will be the first we’ve published on eve of poll itself, on Wednesday.

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Our latest YouGov poll has been published today. Details here and you my Wales Tonight report here . My interview with the US Ambassador is here if you don’t want to wait for tonight’s Sharp End.

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Sharp End is back tonight at 1035pm ITV1 Wales and there’s more than enough to talk about.

Now that the referendum campaign is over, fragile cross-party consensus in Welsh politics is beginning to break down.

Senior Labour figures are attacking the Plaid Cymru ministers who share government with fellow Labour politicians in Cardiff Bay and at the same time exposing tensions within their own party.

And Plaid Cymru politicians are criticising the record of the Assembly Government their party has been involved in for the last four years.

Where will it all end? In one way that’s easy to answer: May 5th when the Assembly election is held.

But what happens afterwards is less easy to answer.

The latest YouGov poll for ITV Wales is out today with some clues for the parties. It’s good news for Labour, but what does that mean for the way the campaign will be conducted?

I’ve interviewed the United States ambassador, Louis Susman, who’s been paying a diplomatic visit to the Assembly. I’ve asked him about the trade relationship between Wales and the US and in particular where that relationship may be a bit strained.

For example, last month the European plane manufacturer EADS (which makes wings for Airbus planes in Flintshire) lost out to the  on a chance to supply the US Air Force with aerial fuel tankers. Was that protectionism?

I also wondered what he makes of devolution. The notorious ‘Welsh wikileak’ suggests previous American diplomatic information about the modern Wales was a little bit shaky. Has it improved?

Following International Women’s Day, Lynn Courtney has been taking stock of the role of women in Welsh politics. You can see her film tonight.

To discuss all these things I’ll be joined by the Labour MP Julie Morgan, the Plaid Cymru candidate Heledd Fychan and the Conservative AM, Andrew RT Davies.

Join us for Sharp End 1035pm ITV1 Wales.

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My colleague Nick Powell has the details of today’s ITV Wales/YouGov poll here: Welsh referendum: the final poll.

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Here’s UK Polling Report’s take on today’s poll. The comments are interesting.

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Just a note for those of you who follow this blog rather than Twitter or the ITV Wales main blog site, our Number-Cruncher-in-Chief, Nick Powell, has full details of this month’s poll here. All you need to know about Referendum and Assembly election voting intentions along with weighted and unweighted figures. Do enjoy.

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